Early warning mechanism for conflict prevention in Africa: A study of IGAD in South Sudan

Abstract

In an effort to save lives, the concept of "conflict early warning and reaction" (EWR) was developed leveraging both quantitative and qualitative models by world and regional bodies. The responsiveness of the humanitarian emergencies of the United Nations due to its bureaucratic nature, the 'silo' mentality, and coupled with the highly politicised nature of the UN Security Council. Conversely, regional organisations have been given the responsibility of responding to crises, and they are beginning to build instruments (organs of peace and security) with the competence to do so. This study further queries the efficacy of EWR. While some regional organisations, notably in Africa, have established EWR procedures with the help of donor organisations, others, notably in Asia, have avoided making any such moves. Yet, there is a dilemma because early warning systems rarely lead to prompt preventative measures. So, it is necessary to assess whether or not conflict EWR is useful for effective practice in light of the available empirical evidence. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the effect of early warning mechanisms on conflict management with a focus on the African Union Mission in South Sudan. This study examines the conditions they might be a valuable instrument for promoting peace and security within regional organisations. A qualitative study based on secondary data.  Results from the study found that among the most pressing issues facing the IGAD region are those related to conflict early warning, such as youth unemployment, poorly managed electoral processes, ethnic polarisation, and competition over land, and natural resources. This study therefore recommends that the best way to ensure a lasting peace in contested border areas is for governments to encourage local communities on both sides to work together to find solutions that are acceptable to everyone. The study concludes that member States should emplace coordinated security monitoring against pastoralist migrations, locust incursions, terrorist activities, and information sharing with relevant authorities.