Examining the US-Israeli Iranian conflict in the Middle East: Implications for Nigeria's energy sub-sector

Abstract

This study examined the US–Israeli–Iranian conflict in the Middle East and how the conflict affects Nigeria’s energy sub‑sector with emphasis on socio‑economic development outcomes and downstream operational realities.  A quantitative design was adopted, combining secondary evidence from energy and macroeconomic briefs with primary data from an online survey administered through purposive sampling. Although 400 respondents were targeted across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, 318 valid responses were analysed using descriptive statistics, including frequencies, percentages, and Chi-square statistical analysis tools. Applying Realism as a theoretical framework, the study interprets Nigeria’s exposure as a predictable outcome of an anarchic international system where great‑power rivalry converts energy into a strategic instrument, generating spillovers for secondary states. The findings show statistically significant patterns linking the conflict to worsening household welfare indicators: Its escalation has renewed global energy insecurity by heightening disruption risks around major supply corridors, especially the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil and petroleum product flows. Furthermore, respondents reported severe budget pressure from Premium Motor Spirit PMS/ Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) price increases, strong perceived connections between transport fuel costs and food prices, changes in transportation choices, heightened awareness of global conflict–local price linkages, and mixed fuel supply experiences (all p < .001). Findings for downstream operations similarly reveal significant perceived effects on product pricing, supply consistency, operational stability, energy security risk, and a strong preference for strengthening domestic refining capacity as the most credible policy response (all p < .001). The paper recommends targeted downstream resilience reforms and consumer shock‑absorption measures to reduce vulnerability during external geopolitical disruptions.