Fragile peace in the West African subregion: Implications for Nigeria's national security

Abstract

This study investigates the implications of fragile peace in the West African subregion for Nigeria's national security, particularly in light of the 2021–2025 regional schisms. As the regional hegemon, Nigeria faces a contagion effect characterised by porous borders, arms proliferation and the influx of foreign insurgent networks such as the Lakurawa groups. Adopting a qualitative research design rooted in secondary data sources of collection, Content Analysis and anchored on the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT). This study evaluates how the systemic failures of regional security architectures, such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), affect Nigeria. The findings of this study indicate that military intervention is primarily driven by democratic backsliding and constitutional manipulation by leaders seeking to extend their tenures, which fuels public frustration and creates opportunities for the military to seize power. Also, the failure of neighbouring states to police their territorial waters has compromised Nigeria's maritime domain, creating high-risk zones that directly deplete national revenue and threaten economic stability and also the instability in the region is compounded by the ECOWAS free movement framework, which lacks the necessary security synchronisation to prevent the spillover of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) into Nigeria’s Northwest. The study concludes that Nigeria’s national stability is inextricably linked to its neighbours’ security. It recommends a transition from purely kinetic military responses to a peacebuilding effectiveness framework that addresses socio-economic triggers and the institutionalisation of independent funding for the MNJTF.