The political economy of Xenophobia: Election Cycles and the Weaponisation of Anti-Nigerian Violence in South Africa (2008–2026)

Abstract

Xenophobic violence against Nigerians and other African nationals in South Africa has assumed a recurring, predictable pattern, intensifying notably during election cycles (2008, 2015, 2019, 2026). This study employed Political Economy of Scapegoating Theory to argue South Africa’s Xenophobic violence is not random or spontaneous but a systematically weaponised political tool deployed by South African political and economic actors to mobilise domestic support, distract from governance failures, and scapegoat foreign nationals. This study employed a qualitative, desk‑based research design utilising policy analysis and secondary sources. The research questions are explored through a conceptual policy analysis drawing on public records, electoral timelines, and diplomatic practice. Data are drawn from publicly available records of xenophobic attacks in South Africa (2008–2026). Findings from the study opine that a systematic, evidence‑driven, and consequence‑based approach can make xenophobic violence strategically unprofitable for its political sponsors and grassroots perpetrators. The study also submits that a strategic framework of curating consequences will move Nigeria beyond reactive condemnations and citizens evacuations toward proactive, calibrated, and reversible countermeasures. The study recommends that Nigeria Ministry of foreign Affairs should commission “Project Unmask” a report mapping each xenophobic wave against South Africa’s electoral calendar, identifying key political figures and movements of Operation Dudula and March for March, translate findings into Zulu, Xhosa, and Afrikaans, and submit executive summary to the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the ICC as evidence of state‑tolerated violations while diplomatically amplifying the Economic Freedom Fighters to create a domestic anti‑xenophobia constituency. Study also recommends that the Ministries of Finance and Foreign Affairs should deploy targeted economic deterrence without harming Nigeria’s economy; freeze new South African portfolio investments by suspending applications for Nigerian securities as a punishment strategy, and impose a temporary moratorium on new business visas for South African corporate executives as a denial strategy. All measures must be reversible, linked to specific South African actions of prosecution of perpetrators, with clear suspension benchmarks to ensure a credible path to normal relations.